In an RCT comparing two drugs, the p-value is 0.03. Which of the following statements is TRUE?
- A There is a 3% probability that the null hypothesis is true
- B The result is clinically significant
- C If the null hypothesis is true, the probability of observing this result or more extreme is 3% ✓
- D The alternative hypothesis is true with 97% probability
Correct answer: C. If the null hypothesis is true, the probability of observing this result or more extreme is 3%
Explanation
The p-value is defined as the probability of observing results as extreme as (or more extreme than) those actually observed, assuming the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of 0.03 does not mean the null hypothesis has 3% probability of being true — the null hypothesis is either true or false. The p-value also does not indicate clinical significance, only statistical significance.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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