Country Y has completed its demographic transition such that both birth and death rates are low, but the birth rate has fallen below the death rate, producing a declining population. Japan approximates this pattern. In which stage of demographic transition does Country Y lie?

• A Early expanding stage (Stage 2)
• B Late expanding stage (Stage 3)
• C Declining stage (Stage 5) ✓
• D Low stationary stage (Stage 4)

Explanation

The classic four-stage model ends with a low stationary stage where both rates are low and growth is near zero. A fifth, declining stage has been added to describe countries where fertility has fallen below replacement and the birth rate is lower than the death rate, giving negative natural growth, as seen in Japan and parts of Europe. Stage 3 still shows positive natural increase because births exceed deaths.

Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 25th ed.

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