The NFHS-5 (2019–21) reported India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 2.0, below replacement level of 2.1. Despite this, India's population continues to grow. The demographic concept explaining this phenomenon is:
- A Demographic transition phase 4 with negative population growth
- B Increasing life expectancy driving crude birth rate up
- C Population momentum — the large cohort of young adults continues to produce births even with below-replacement TFR ✓
- D TFR of 2.0 is not below replacement level for Indian age structure
Correct answer: C. Population momentum — the large cohort of young adults continues to produce births even with below-replacement TFR
Explanation
Population momentum describes the tendency of a population to continue growing after fertility falls to replacement level, due to the disproportionately large cohort of young reproductive-age individuals (15–44 years) — itself a legacy of past high fertility — who continue producing absolute births despite each woman having fewer children. India's 'demographic dividend' population bulge ensures net growth for 30–40 years after TFR drops below 2.1. Life expectancy increasing shifts the age structure toward older age, if anything reducing CBR.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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