The 'demographic dividend' refers to economic growth potential arising from a shift in population age structure. India is currently in which phase of demographic transition to best exploit this dividend?
- A Phase 3 — falling birth rate, low death rate, declining population growth with large working-age population ✓
- B Phase 1 — high birth rate, high death rate, low population growth
- C Phase 2 — high birth rate, falling death rate, rapid population growth
- D Phase 4 — low birth rate, low death rate, stable ageing population
Correct answer: A. Phase 3 — falling birth rate, low death rate, declining population growth with large working-age population
Explanation
India is currently in Phase 3 (late transitional phase) of the demographic transition, characterized by declining birth rates, already low death rates, and a large and growing working-age population (15–64 years) relative to dependents. This creates the demographic dividend — a temporary window where the dependency ratio is low and per-capita income can rise if supported by investment in education, health, and employment. Failure to convert this window into economic gains (as seen in some African nations) is the demographic trap.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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