A case-control study finds an odds ratio of 3.5 with a 95% CI of 1.2 to 10.2. The p-value is 0.02. Which of the following statements is MOST accurate?

• A The association is statistically significant and the result is clinically meaningful with certainty
• B The association is not significant because the CI crosses 3
• C The p-value of 0.02 means there is a 2% probability that the null hypothesis is true
• D The association is statistically significant but the wide CI indicates imprecision ✓

Explanation

A 95% CI that does not include 1 (1.2–10.2) and a p-value below 0.05 confirm statistical significance. However, the very wide confidence interval (spanning from 1.2 to 10.2) signals substantial imprecision, likely due to a small sample size. A p-value of 0.02 means there is a 2% probability of obtaining this result if the null hypothesis were true—not that the null hypothesis has a 2% probability of being true.

Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.

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