In a clinical trial, the p-value for a primary outcome is 0.04 (alpha = 0.05). The 95% confidence interval for the relative risk is 1.08 to 3.42. The correct interpretation is:
- A The result is statistically significant; the CI suggests the true RR is likely in this range, but clinical significance must be judged separately ✓
- B The result is statistically significant and the true RR is certainly 1.08 to 3.42
- C The result is not significant because the CI is very wide
- D A p-value of 0.04 means there is a 4% probability the null hypothesis is true
Correct answer: A. The result is statistically significant; the CI suggests the true RR is likely in this range, but clinical significance must be judged separately
Explanation
A p-value < 0.05 indicates statistical significance at the 5% level — the null hypothesis (RR = 1) is rejected. The 95% CI (1.08–3.42) does not include 1, which is consistent with the p-value. However, clinical significance depends on the magnitude of the effect and context, not just p-value. A p-value does NOT equal the probability the null hypothesis is true.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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