A drug trial finds p = 0.04. Which interpretation is most accurate?
- A There is a 4% probability that the null hypothesis is true
- B There is a 96% probability that the alternative hypothesis is true
- C If the null hypothesis were true, there is a 4% probability of obtaining data as extreme or more extreme ✓
- D The treatment produces a clinically important effect in 96% of patients
Correct answer: C. If the null hypothesis were true, there is a 4% probability of obtaining data as extreme or more extreme
Explanation
The p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the one obtained, assuming the null hypothesis is true. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true (option A), nor does it directly indicate the probability of the alternative hypothesis being true. Clinical importance (effect size) requires confidence intervals and clinical judgement, not p-values alone.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
High-yield for: NEET PGINI-CETNExTFMGEUSMLEPLABMRCP
Written and medically reviewed by the StethoPrep medical team.