A forensic laboratory is comparing two STR profiles from a crime scene. The suspect's profile shows alleles 14,17 at locus D3S1358 and the evidence shows 14,17 at the same locus. The probability of this match occurring by chance in the relevant population is 1 in 1,200,000. This value is best described as:
- A Likelihood ratio
- B Prior probability
- C Random match probability ✓
- D Posterior probability
Correct answer: C. Random match probability
Explanation
The random match probability (RMP) is the probability that a randomly selected individual from the relevant population would have the same DNA profile as the evidence. The likelihood ratio is derived from RMP (it equals 1/RMP when the suspect is the only alternative) but is not the same value. Prior and posterior probabilities relate to Bayesian frameworks applied after calculating RMP.
Reference: The Essentials of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology (Narayan Reddy), 34th ed.
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Written and medically reviewed by the StethoPrep medical team.