A researcher states that the p-value in their study comparing two interventions is 0.03. Which of the following is the most accurate interpretation of this finding?
- A There is a 3% probability that the null hypothesis is true
- B If the null hypothesis were true, there is a 3% probability of obtaining a result as extreme or more extreme than observed ✓
- C There is a 97% probability that the alternative hypothesis is true
- D The treatment effect is clinically significant with 97% confidence
Correct answer: B. If the null hypothesis were true, there is a 3% probability of obtaining a result as extreme or more extreme than observed
Explanation
The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed result under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. It does NOT give the probability that the null hypothesis is true (that is a common misconception). A p-value < 0.05 is conventionally considered statistically significant but does not imply clinical significance.
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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