In a clinical trial, the p-value of 0.03 with alpha set at 0.05 means:
- A There is a 3% probability that the treatment is ineffective
- B There is a 3% probability of obtaining results as extreme or more extreme if the null hypothesis were true ✓
- C The treatment has a 97% efficacy rate
- D The results are clinically significant
Correct answer: B. There is a 3% probability of obtaining results as extreme or more extreme if the null hypothesis were true
Explanation
The p-value is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the observed results, assuming the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of 0.03 means there is a 3% probability of seeing such results by chance alone if there is no true effect. It does not indicate the probability that the null is true, the probability the treatment works, or clinical significance (which requires effect size and context).
Reference: Park's Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 27th ed.
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